Mosul: Winning the battle to lose the war (on terrorism)

Wars are fought to win. And yet, it’ s not rare that winning has led to disastrous results for the winners. It was winning the Iraq war that led to the creation of ISIS. It was the distraction of Gaddafi’s dictatorship that turned Libya into a terrorist state. It will be fall of Mosul that will export waves of terrorism to the rest of the world.

In recent years ISIS has recruited westerners, trained them as warriors, and sent them to perform atrocities and fight wars.

When ISIS started losing grounds, the trend reversed. Many of the Europeans returned home, and many of the local ISIS warriors, finding themselves on the losing side, mingled with refugees and moved with them to Europe.

That gave bad name to the true refugees, devastated and innocent, those who had fled one of the worst atrocities in decades, whose only sin was their place of origin. But among them, evil is hiding. Fighters for the losing side, who, having nourished on the taste of torture, mutilation, killing and rape, cannot be civilized again.  Fighters who were waiting for an opportunity to return to their days of fighting glory.

With the fall of Mosul, their dream will be shuttered, but not the belief in their mission, not the taste of blood. These are fighters who will seek revenge of those who led to their destruction. Fighters who will keep fighting to the death, because their own death is what they fight for.

If we thought that we have already seen terrorism, this was mostly by the uninitiated, copycats, who wanted part of the glory of those fighting the holy war. The next wave will be of the professional men of war.

With the fall of Mosul, refugees will return to Syria to resume their life. The fighters will remain with us, hoping to take revenge, hoping to practice what they have been trained for, lusting after the pillage of war.

This is what we will be left with after the fall of Mosul. And this is what we will need to learn to live with for years to come.

How Safe Are We?

Manhattan.

Those who advocate that armed forces at every street corner increase the security and safety of the nation, must feel safe and secure when traveling through the city’s streets, malls and train stations. Special police units in blue uniform randomly search your bags; Army forces in desert camouflage, holding submachine guns, watch your every movement. DHS, metro police, HPD, TSA, helicopters hover above the city, can we ever feel any safer?

But how much do you trust these armed-to-the-teeth guys, or is it only a big Hollywood production? I am not talking about bad intentions, abuse of power or civil liberty – unlike the regular, mostly rude, NY police force – they seem reasonably nice. You can have a chat with them, ask a question, or even exchange a joke or two.

But do you trust that at time of need they will be able to perform their job? I have my doubts.

According to the American, Adam Smithian, pin-factory doctrine, it’s the system, rather than the individual, that creates value. Individuals are cheap and replaceable. This trend has started decades ago in the manufacturing sector, but with the advance of computers and automation, this trend has proliferated to all walks of life. More and more we suffer deteriorating services because employees, who has no authority to make any decision, provide no better job than a computer terminal with semi-decent software. No wonder that such employees show no interest in their jobs, and believe that following orders – as if they are incapable of thinking for themselves – is the only way to fulfill their duty. After all, any other behavior is a sackable offense.

While in some areas this trend can improve efficiency, in others it may lead to disastrous results. For example, when I took a flight over the New Year eve, the security guard spent over ten minutes examining each of the four passengers who boarded the plane in the empty terminal. When I asked, why he was spending so much time on each of us, he explained that as he had an hour to check passengers, the less passengers there were, the more time he had to spend on each. He was not interested in the safety of the plane. After all, that was not his job. His job was simply to check passengers.

So what has it got to do with the safety of Manhattan?

The other day, on 33rd street – a station I did not know – I needed to change from the subway to the Path train. I approached a group of soldiers securing the station to ask for direction. “Path?” they asked. “Never heard of it.” Kindly they called another group not far away. “I don’t think it runs from here anymore,” another said. It took another few minutes of discussion over the radio when they eventually figured out that it was just around the corner, and was still running, as it had for years. The Path, by the way, is one of the main lines that connects Manhattan and New Jersey; 33rd Street is not a big station. They clearly did not know the ground.

The first thing a military force does when it reaches a new place is to familiarize itself with the grounds. These guys had not. It was not their job. So what would happen if at time of emergency they needed to get themselves from one point to the next? What happened if lights turned off, of if place was full of smoke? These armed forces, would not have found their way.

Often, the only way to deal with emergency is to think independently. But this is against what these guys were trained to do. I just hope that my life will never depend on their abilities.

Bombs and Euros

I don’t understand Iran’s obsession with their nuclear program. After all, if all they want is to bring US to its knees, all they need to do is sell their oil for Euros. This will not only devastate US much faster, it will also shatter the American national spirit.  

Think Simple

America invested a million dollars to have a pen that can write in space, the Russians used a pencil.

America has invested billions to develop Star Wars capabilities, a dozen people with no technology brought the World Trade Center down.

And the first nuclear bomb might reach the US not by a ballistic missile, but sent by Fedex to explode on opening.

And once more we will all be caught by surprise.

The Battle against Bin Laden

A single person fighting against the strongest army in the world lost after 11 years. What is there to celebrate?

Bin Laden died and yet we lost. We lost hundreds of lives and billions of dollars. Our economy is as close to collapse as it has ever been, and our position in the world will never be restored. Worst of all, by exposing how vulnerable we really are and how a single person can take on an entire nation, Bin Laden open a Pandora box that will not be shut again.

We must recognize that we did not destroy the extreme Islam who sees as as the devil, but merely one of it martyrs. And martyrs there are many. Only if we acknowledge that it's not the war that we won will we have a chance to avoid the next battle.

A single person took on an entire world and nearly won. What is there to celebrate?

Stark naked passengers: the future of modern aviation

It won’t be long before all pre-boarding airline passengers will be required to undergo total body hair removal, comprehensive search of all cavities and orifices, and board their plane stark naked. No luggage whatsoever will be allowed. Instead, luggage will follow passengers on separate cargo flights.

During flights, the release of seat belts will be controlled centrally, and toilet bags will be sold by the aircrew to the confined passengers. This, together with the extra seats replacing the now-obsolete toilet cubicles will help airlines recoup some of the additional security cost.

If this may sound to you as overreaction, it really is nothing more than a simple extension of our current reactionary security measures. That is, when a terrorists’ attempt takes place, we implement new measures to reduce the possibility of reoccurrence of similar attempts. This is the reason we rely so heavily on metal detectors (which do not detect plastic explosives), need to remove shoes (what about wigs?), or are prevented from bringing liquids on board. But not only can’t this approach prevent new original plots, soon will we reach the limit of restrictions we can impose on passengers. For example, as modern explosives can be molded in any shape or form, it’s not unthinkable that they may even be worn as undergarment. What will we do after the first terrorist blows up his underwear?

Although it has been nearly eight years since 9/11, it wasn’t the improved security alertness or the tight security measures that prevented this week’s attack from becoming a full scale disaster. It was a lucky malfunction of the bomb combined with a spontaneous heroic act of one of the passengers that saved the lives of the Northwest airline passengers.

But again, following this latest attempt, additional ineffective measures and restrictions are being implemented. From now on we’ll not be allowed to leave our seats 60 minutes before lending – as if terrorist acts cannot take place earlier. And even though security expert claims that a shoe bomb is big enough to blow a hole in an airplane, from now on we’ll not be able to carry more than a single bag on board.

The only real chance we have to prevent airplane terrorism is to improve intelligence. Intelligence was acknowledged as a major failure that led to 9/11. Intelligence, again, failed to prevent this recent attempt. After all, the bomber’s father, who is a prominent banking official in Nigeria, went to the U.S. embassy in Nigeria, to discuss his concerns about his son, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. But that didn’t trigger any additional checks or investigation when his son boarded the plane.

It seems that, once again, kneejerk measures have won over substance. But what can we expect? After all, if 9/11 wasn’t enough to make the required change, can we really expect a failed terrorist attempt to do the job?